In a surprising economic announcement today, Retail Sales for January were up 1% over December.  This represents a 400 basis point increase over revised Decembers values when sale dropped 3%.   In addition, the results scorched the economists predictions of a 0.8% decrease, with some groups predicting a decrease of as much as 2.2%.  Even sales at auto dealerships and parts stores were up 1.6% after declining 16% in December.  Another interesting note in the report (especially for real estate practitioners) was a 2.7% increase for non-store retailers which includes catalog and Internet retailers.  If this trend holds true, we could emerge from this recession much less dependant on bricks and mortar stores and more focused on fulfillment centers.  

All in all, this is pretty good news.  Despite the positive results, economists continue to predict that consumer spending will decline going forward.  However, given their accuracy here, I’m not sure that means very much.  The economy still has a long way to go and this is a very good start.  Regardless of whether you are a Keynes and Friedman follower, you have to agree that the consumer spending will have to increase to help pull us out of the recession.  It looks like we are trying…