The latest Port Tracker report issued by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight contains an ominous forecast for 2009 container activity at American ports.  The report has 2008 TEU volume down 7.9% and projected that the first half of 2009 will be 11.8% off 2008 levels. December 2008 marks the 17th straight month of year over year declines at domestic ports.

“2008 was one of the most challenging years retailers have seen, and all indications are that 2009 won’t be any better,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Unfortunately, cargo volume at the ports reflects retailers’ anticipated sales, and NRF expects that sales will get worse before they get better. Retailers are only going to import what they can sell.”

While the Port Tracker report only looks at inbound cargo, the current state of the dollar doesn’t hold out much hope for exports pulling us through this time.  2009 will be an interesting year to watch for ports.  As we are seeing in Charleston, shippers are taking a very hard look at the cost of operating in each port.  I would suspect we will see more realignment of routes to more cost effective locations.  The upside to a down economy is that it forces everyone to look at their entire supply chain and be as efficient as possible.  When we emerge from the recession, the lessons we are learning now will help us all be more profitable in the long run.