I recently came across this bleak outlook for the US Municipal Bond Market written by Frederick J. Sheehan (see link below).  While this is just one man’s opinion, it’s enough to give a bond investor at least a few sleepless nights.  Some of the historical precedents he points out, especially those from the Depression Era, are chilling.

The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market (PDF)

It should come as no surprise that analyzing and quantifying “risk” are the name of the game in this economy.  The risk profile for Municipal Bonds is no exception.  Unfortunately, there may be some validity to the concept that Municipal Bonds carry more risk than anyone had anticipated.

According to a recent article in The Arizona Republic, some municipalities don’t see the benefits of the Qualified School Construction Bonds (QSCB’s) and are forgoing their use.  The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, otherwise known as the ”Stimulus Plan”, created the QSCB’s as a way to incentivize new school construction.  The bonds are unique in that they pay no interest to the bondholders.  Instead, the bondholders receive a federal tax credit.  A deep investor market for these bonds has not yet emerged and many issuers are having to pay additional interest to bondholders to incentivize them to purchase the bonds.

In addition, the QSCB’s come with several requirements which may make them costly to implement.  The first requirement, and most punitive, is the requirement to utilize Davis Bacon Wage Labor rates.  Depending on the locality, this requirement alone can increase construction costs significantly.  It is not inconceivable that any interest savings achieved by using the QSCB’s could be eaten away via higher construction costs.  Secondly, there are significant and severe reporting requirements that go along with several of the ARRA created bonds, not just QSCB’s.  We have heard of some municipalities that are having to dedicate a full time staff person to handle the reporting requirements.  In a fiscal environment where every costs is being scrutinized, adding a position may not be palatable.

Much like most things in life, there are always pro’s and con’s associated with any decision.  Municipalities are well advised to lean heavily on their financial advisors as they work through the various funding options for new projects.