The worst may not be over yet for the US Municipal Bond market.  That’s according to a recent report from the ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service.  The report shows that in 2009, the agency downgraded 279 state and local government tax-backed bonds.  That is up 244% from 2008 when Moody’s downgraded only 81 such entities.  Overall, the ratings fell for 300 revenue debt issuers, up from 133 in 2008.

While the struggles that state and local governments are facing to balance their budgets is nothing new, we are beginning to see the hardship take a toll on their credit ratings.  Those lower credit ratings will make it much more difficult and costly to issue bonds, exacerbating the problems they are facing.

I recently came across this bleak outlook for the US Municipal Bond Market written by Frederick J. Sheehan (see link below).  While this is just one man’s opinion, it’s enough to give a bond investor at least a few sleepless nights.  Some of the historical precedents he points out, especially those from the Depression Era, are chilling.

The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market (PDF)

It should come as no surprise that analyzing and quantifying “risk” are the name of the game in this economy.  The risk profile for Municipal Bonds is no exception.  Unfortunately, there may be some validity to the concept that Municipal Bonds carry more risk than anyone had anticipated.

In a further sign of the distress apparent in the bonds markets, the yield curve for US Treasuries moved to its steepest level in recorded history yesterday.  The spread between 2-year and 10-year notes breached 275 basis points.  The sharp increase in yields seems to be a result of concerns over the levels of debt the US government is incurring and how they will fund the spending.  According to a CNBC article,

With $2 trillion or more in issuance seen coming to market this year alone, some dealers were looking for a sharp readjustment in bond rates—which effectively reflect the cost to government of financing its borrowing.

The treasury did experience good demand for yesterday’s auction of $35 billion of 5-year notes.  However, strong demand for shorter term notes indicates a lack of demand for longer term issuance’s.  These are the ones that typically finance many of the municipal projects that provides the local services we, as taxpayers, demand.  In addition, the increase in longer term rates has a profound effect on mortgage rates, driving them up further.  This could serve to slow the improvements in the housing market, a sector which the US badly needs to improve in order to pull it from this recession.

While the debt markets may not be the most exciting thing to watch, they are extremely important to health and well being of our economy.